ALEXANDER COOPER

The Fourth Turning

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Table of contents

- SUMMARY The Fourth Turning

- Summary of Chapter 1

- Summary of Chapter 2

- Summary of Chapter 4

- Summary of Chapter 5

- Summary of Chapter 6

- Summary of Chapter 7

- Summary of Chapter 8

- Summary of Chapter 9

- Summary of Chapter 10

- Questions

- Background Information about The Fourth Turning

SUMMARY THE FOURTH TURNING

by William Strauss & Neil Howe - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny - A Comprehensive Summary

SUMMARY The Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning is a book by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It outlines the foundation for what is now known as Strauss-Howe generational theory. The main tenet of the book is that American and global history follows a generational cycle. The cycle is defined by four "Turnings,” each lasting about 20 years. Generational archetypes play a crucial role in historical events, and these archetypes recur. The cycle of the four "Turnings" is called a "saeculum” and is roughly the length of human life.

The book offers a detailed description of the underlying philosophy. The key idea is seasonality. The authors offer their findings from nature and history to claim that the cyclical nature of time permeates all life, including American history. Furthermore, the authors analyze Anglo-American history to find patterns in a generational attitude. They then correlate these characteristics to the historical events of significance. The evidence that the authors present focuses on their interpretation of key historical figures, as well as societal attitudes.

The cyclical generational attitudes are the prime factor in analyzing history and politics, according to Strauss and Howe. The authors claim that race, gender, economic class, religion, and political beliefs are all less influential in determining the course of history. This claim is controversial, and authors reflect on their stance against other prominent academics, offering some comparison with several secondary sources.

Overall, the evidence that the authors present is highly subjective and is not sufficiently bolstered with verifiable sources. Each generation is presented as having a unified voice, with few acknowledgments of a diversity of thought within each generational group. Therefore, the predictions are not based on solid evidence. Rather, the book puts forward a theory of generational seasonality. The authors explore what this theory could mean, but they do not offer a sufficient basis for their findings.

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SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 1

Introduction

The Fourth Turning is a book by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It outlines the foundation for what is now known as Strauss-Howe generational theory. The main tenet of the book is that American and global history follows a generational cycle. The cycle is defined by four "Turnings,” each lasting about 20 years. Generational archetypes play a crucial role in historical events, and these archetypes recur. The cycle of the four "Turnings" is called a "saeculum” and is roughly the length of human life.

The book offers a detailed description of the underlying philosophy. The key idea is seasonality. The authors offer their findings from nature and history to claim that the cyclical nature of time permeates all life, including American history. Furthermore, the authors analyze Anglo-American history to find patterns in a generational attitude. They then correlate these characteristics to the historical events of significance. The evidence that the authors present focuses on their interpretation of key historical figures, as well as societal attitudes.

The cyclical generational attitudes are the prime factor in analyzing history and politics, according to Strauss and Howe. The authors claim that race, gender, economic class, religion, and political beliefs are all less influential in determining the course of history. This claim is controversial, and authors reflect on their stance against other prominent academics, offering some comparison with several secondary sources.

Overall, the evidence that the authors present is highly subjective and is not sufficiently bolstered with verifiable sources. Each generation is presented as having a unified voice, with few acknowledgments of a diversity of thought within each generational group. Therefore, the predictions are not based on solid evidence. Rather, the book puts forward a theory of generational seasonality. The authors explore what this theory could mean, but they do not offer a sufficient basis for their findings.

Summary of Chapter 1

"Winter Comes Again,” sets up the main argument of the book. The chapter claims that history is a cyclical repetition of "four turnings." America would enter the Fourth Turning in 2005. The authors offer evidence to show that certain events and moods repeat themselves. Based on that evidence, the chapter predicts that the future of America would soon enter the chaos of the Fourth Turning.

In 1997, America was enjoying peace marred with pessimism about the future. The authors criticize contemporary American society as entitled and individualistic. They trace the source of discontent to uncertainty about the future. As a solution, they offer an explanation of what would come. They observe a pattern in their studies of American history and offer predictions. Around every two decades, Anglo-American society enters a new turning. They define a turning as a change of people's self-identities, the culture, the nation, and the future. Each turning lasts around twenty years, and they come in cycles of four. The timing of each cycle comes from the saeculum - the term to mean an approximate span of human life. The four turnings within each cycle equate to periods of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction.

The First Turning is a High when institutions grow stronger and individualism weakens. The Second Turning, or Awakening, follows when the new values challenge the status quo. The Third Turning means Unraveling. The opposite trend to the First turning occurs: stronger individualism and weaker institutions. The final, fourth stage is a secular Crisis when a new regime replaces the old civic order.

Strauss and Howe then use historical evidence to support their claim. To show that America was in the Fourth Turning, they cite events to show the preceding stages. For the First Turning, presidencies of Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy brought the High. The Consciousness Revolution between the mid-1960s and the early 1980s signaled the Second Turning. The Third Turning was evident in the Culture Wars that began during Regan's term. Thus, the authors claim that America in their time, in 1997, was in the Fourth Turning. They draw comparisons between the moods in the 1920s and the contemporary ones. The authors observe polarized social and generational conflicts in both time periods. Moreover, they trace The Third Turning events throughout American history. They conclude that culture wars were indicative of the darkening moral debates.

The chapter describes three alternative ways people understood time: chaotic, cyclical, and linear. Chaotic time was prevalent in primitive times. Traditional civilizations conceived of time as cyclical. Linear time is a modern concept. The danger of chaotic and linear concepts of time is that they disconnect people from other generations. This disconnect inhibits learning about the future. To combat this trend, the chapter suggests the return to a cyclical understanding of time. Without the concept of recurrence, discussing the past is meaningless, according to Strauss and Howe. Therefore, the chapter encourages the readers to reject the linear time concept and embrace the cyclical time instead. Arthur M. Schlesinger traces the cyclical patterns in nature to claim that they occur in history. Strauss and Howe applaud Schlesinger for leading “The courageous few who challenge the linear orthodoxy."

The chapter's main takeaway is that American history is cyclical. The chapter concludes with the urge to "unlearn" the linear understanding of history. Authors reject the ideas that result from linear notions of time. The first lesson to unlearn is that American history is linear. The second idea is the fear of death. The final concept to "unlearn" is that positive change is incremental and human-made. After this "unlearning,” the readers can appreciate the prophecies of cyclical time. Strauss and Howe urge the readers to use this information to prepare for The Fourth Turning.

The rest of the book is divided into three sections: Seasons, Turnings, and Preparations. Each section offers a part of the author's theory of American history. The first part summarizes the idea of seasonality. It claims that everything in human experience goes through cycles, including individual experiences, relationships with others, and civilization as a whole. The second part focuses on where America stands from the perspective of the Four Turnings. The third part offers advice on how to use the information that the authors present. The main idea is that through the right preparations, individuals and the nation can change the course of history.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 2

"Seasons of Time" offers the writer's detailed explanation of the theory of seasonality. The central idea of the chapter is that history moves in cycles, correspondent to saeculum. Strauss and Howe cite other historians to show evidence of cyclical time.

The chapter begins with the description of the ancient Etruria - a part of pre-Roman Italy. The Etruscans had a belief that their civilization would last ten lifetimes before ceasing to exist. Strauss and Howe claim that the prophecy came true. Rome's power prevailed almost exactly one thousand years from the dawn of Etruria. Later, Romans took on the Etruscan lessons of rhythmic measures of destiny. They believed in twelve hundred-year cycles that would spell doom for their civilization. The authors claim that this prophecy came to pass, as well. Other cultures around the world follow the same pattern, according to the authors. Thus, they claim that the saeculum has influenced the ancient world.

Strauss and Howe claim that there are several ways in which cyclical time manifests. Each cycle appears as a circle. Each circle is further divided into phases, usually two or four. Each new circle of time originates from a break of the previous circle. Thus, each new circle restarts the time count. The final attribute is that each circle of time will repeat itself with regularity. Strauss and Howe offer two reasons for why this repetition mirrors the span of human life. The first explanation is that the length of human life is unavoidable and somewhat fixed. The second reason is that the energy to innovate and change the status quo originates from humans' life experiences.

In the post-Roman era, linear replaced circular in the way people thought of time. During the Renaissance, circular time made a reappearance. In the 1500s, centuries entered timekeeping. Historians began considering ciecles or circles of the time as a factor in the recurrence of wars.

Quincy Wright claimed that history follows a fifty-year oscillation pattern. If a person has been to war, she would teach her children to avoid it. Yet, the grandchildren of the first generation would not have the same aversion to war. This would make them likely to repeat it. He hoped that wars can be avoided through peacekeeping. Strauss and Howe note that this hope was later proven false by the ineffectiveness of the UN and the Vietnam War.

Arnold Toynbee, a British historian, argued that war and peace alternate. They do so at roughly ninety-five-year intervals. He gave examples from European history beginning with the Italian Wars of 1494-1525 all the way up to WWI and WWII. He found that the Generation Cycle was responsible for the regularity of the war-peace rhythm. Like Wright, his explanation was the discontinuity of generational memory. Also, like Wright, he believed in the possibility of harmony, but he later changed his mind.

L.L. Ferrar Jr. suggested that the "peace" intervals between major wars actually have "probing wars.” Richard Rosecrance claimed that these periods were better characterized as "power vacuums." Modelski divides the political cycle into recurrent phases. The four stages are world power, delegitimizing, deconcentration, and global war. The last phase's key characteristic is that it replaces the global world order. Strauss and Howe follow the last theory, re-evaluating the terminology. They analyze European history from this perspective, noting several anomalies. They claim that less modern societies are less likely to follow the regularity of saeculum.

The authors then analyze American history from the perspective of seasonality. English and American history events follow the recurrence of the four stages of saeculum. For instance, the Civil War, the Great Depression, and World War II crises all result in the US acquiring more power than before. According to the authors, these crises are indicative of American cyclical history. Moreover, the American "Awakenings" occur with regularity. They cite the Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984) as an example. It changed the environment of high creativity and low imagination to its opposite.

The chapter ends with a summary of their findings. Strauss and Howe trace the historical events in the United States to argue their regularity. They predict that the next American Crisis would occur in the first quarter of the twenty-first century. Their conclusion mirrors the prediction of war-cycle theorists they analyzed. They encourage readers to accept the natural recurrence of history. This would allow people to prepare for the inevitable upcoming crisis.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 4

Summary of Chapter 3

“Seasons of Life,” outlines the theory of four-type generational cycles. According to this theory, American generations cycle through four archetypes. The authors describe the characteristics of these generations and how they affected US history.

The writers compare the flow of history to the seasons of life. In the previous chapter, they argued that American history follows a recurring cycle. In this chapter, they extend the argument to claim that human generations also follow a similar cycle. The four generational archetypes repeat themselves in order.

The four parts of an individual’s life cycle are childhood, young adulthood, midlife, elderhood, and late elderhood. The authors claim that the length of each cycle is equal to roughly 21 years. They describe the American life experience to identify the characteristics of each stage. They claim that Great Events, like Awakenings and Crises, affect each generation differently. These effects further alter the social roles each generation plays later in life.

The writers note that throughout history, similar interpretations have existed. They claim that generation was the measuring unit of history for many ancient civilizations. The modern tendency for progress erased this concept from mainstream thinking. At the same time, the effects of generational issues are becoming more pronounced.

Identifying the borders of a generation is difficult, especially with the present generation. The chapter outlines several attributes that help define a generation. The three attributes are a common location in history; common beliefs and behavior; and a perceived membership in a common generation. Common location means relative positioning to the chronology of historical events. People of a new generation have common beliefs and behaviors which differ from those of their predecessors. The best way to find the common perceived membership is to ask people which generation they belong to. One of the important results of the latter is the sense of generational direction. In this way, a generation can choose its destiny.

In American history, four cycles of a saeculum see a certain generational archetype, according to Strauss and Howe. The four archetypes are Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist. They then trace the recurrence of these four generations throughout Anglo-American history all the way to King Henry VII. They find that the four types always occur in the same order, except for the Civil War.

The basis for the four archetypes is Greek historians and Jungian philosophy. They note that the trope of a young Hero with an older Prophet recurs in literature and history. The myth also exists of a young Prophet and the old king. The authors compare the two images to describe Awakening eras in the myths of young Prophets. The Hero is thus prepared for his destiny in the Crisis by the Prophet. By comparison, Nomad and Artist myths are less grand because they do not appear during the Awakening or Crisis cycles. Their storylines focus on individuals and human relationships. This theory claims that each generational archetype affects the next one in a profound but predictable way.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 5

Summary of Chapter 4

“Cycles of History,” matches the American history events with the generational archetypes described in previous chapters. The authors describe the evidence of generational differences in various arenas of social life: politics, foreign affairs, and economy.

The chapter begins by describing the origins and development of the American Cycle of archetypes. They trace it back to 1485 when Henry Tudor defeated King Richard III thus securing the throne. This led to the assumption of modern principles in English politics. Other factors that influenced the American cycle were the influences of Native Americans, African Americans, and immigrants. The authors claim that gradually America has offered more opportunities to people. They argue that everyone has the power to influence social roles and affect their generational cycle.

In tracing the Anglo-American Saeculum, Strauss and Howe identify twenty-four generations. They claim that the four-archetypes follow each other in the same order every time. They also note that each generation encounters an Awakening and a Crisis in its lifetime. Their reactions are also cyclical, and, therefore, predictable.

The main characteristics of each archetype manifest at different times. Prophets show great passion when they come of age. Nomads raise hell during their adulthood. Heroes thrive during their adolescence. Artists come of age quietly and become flexible leaders. Together, the four archetypes balance American history. They coexist and form archetypal constellations. This allows for a mutually corrective, complementary effect.

The chapter outlines the characteristic mood for each generation during each turning of a saeculum. During the High, the community strives for order and consensus. The Second turning brings a dramatic challenge to the status quo. Unraveling follows with a laissez-faire attitude. Finally, Crisis sees more government and aggressive social change. The authors claim that progress is only possible through this recurrence.

The chapter describes how the rhythm of the cycle is reflected in different areas of social life. In history, many social indicators follow a pattern of recurrence every twenty-two years or so. In politics, conservative and liberal eras alternate. In foreign affairs, there is a two-stroke alternation between an event and a response to it. In the economy, the concept of cycles is well-established. Family and society also reflect a recurrent cycle, where the fight for women’s rights follows at regular intervals. This is linked to the shifts in the institution of a family. The population follows the cycles of increased birth rates and mortality and varying immigration rates. Crime and social disorder rates are high during the Third Cycle but fall during Crises. In the cultural realm, ideas oscillate between a focus on the spirit to a focus on the world.

The chapter concludes by the consideration of what the next generation can do. The main thesis of the book is that certain events and attitudes happen with regularity. Accidents still occur, and the authors encourage the readers to consider them a part of the paradigm. To learn from this recurrence, the authors advise that each generation must embrace its best characteristics and potential. They quote several crises in American history to argue that the negative effects occur when the generations let their worst instincts prevail. To prevent this from happening, authors encourage readers to learn from the past.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 6

Summary of Chapter 5

"Gray Champions" Summarizes the first section of the book. Strauss and Howe claim that throughout history, four seasons can be traced. Each season is accompanied by a certain generational archetype performing a certain function. The authors describe the experience of Nathaniel Hawthorne in the colonial Glorious Revolution. He has noted the presence of a "Gray Champion,” who was a leading figure at the time. The authors claim that such Gray Champion reappeared 80 years later. The Champion would be accompanied by a Prophet. Their actions would have the background of middle-aged Nomads, coming-of-age Heroes, and youthful Artists. This dynamic signaled the arrival of the Fourth Turning of history. This knowledge might be scary to the readers, the writer's note. If possible, any nation would prefer to avoid a crisis. However, as seasonality does not work this way, the authors urge the readers to prepare for the upcoming crisis.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 7

Summary of Chapter 6

The second part of the book, titled "Turnings,” discusses post-WWII American history in the context of the author's premise. The First Turning is described in chapter 6. The period between 1946 to 1964 saw an American High. Nation-wide events and generational trends showed the characteristics of the First Turning, according to Strauss and Howe. The events that followed the V-J Day in 1945 consisted of improvements in the economic and social well-being of the society. The generational dynamics were affected by this growth. An optimistic outlook urged different reactions from the four generations at the time.

After WWII, the nation struggled in the aftermath of a tragic conflict. Americans held ideals of social unity and prosperity. However, the post-war struggles made the outlook grim. The US government sought to provide relief in the form of the New Deal. However, the nation embraced the many opportunities peace time offered. The government's budget could balance its spending with the budget. The inequality gap was narrowing. The rising middle class had a demand for a higher standard of living, leading to suburbanization. Many thinkers criticized this period for its materialism and lack of creativity. Strauss and Howe note that the racism, sexism, and groupthink of the 1950s are negative from a contemporary standpoint but were progressive when compared to the thinking of 1928 America. Thus, the years following the WWII victory until 1963 were a time of progress and success of the First Turning High.

The First Turning season produces a specific social order. In the Four Turnings theory, this means a pre-determined generational dynamic. Nomads enter elderhood, slowing the pace of social change. They value simplicity and survival over reforms. Heroes replace Nomads in midlife, upholding social discipline. Artists become young adults, cooperating, and aiding social harmony. Children of the era are Prophets; they grow up in a secure environment. They are optimistic about the future outlook. The behavior of each generation clashes with others. The overall product of this dynamic is the shift in public mood to a High.

The most recent First Turning is no exception. The Lost generation entered elderhood. They replaced the older generation of Missionaries, whom they held responsible for the onus of the war. In the social psyche, Missionaries appeared as dogmatic and principled. The Lost, however, presented as pragmatists. They were criticized by the Missionaries for being selfish, destroying the legacy of the preceding generation. This resulted in a low self-image of the generation. The Lost generation calmed the drive for change, valuing order, and self-reliance.

The midlife generation of the First Turning was G.I or the Heroes in Strauss and Howe's nomenclature. After returning home from war, they sought simple comforts. They grew up with overprotective parents in their childhood and optimism in their youth. Upon entering midlife, they carried the peer-focused attitude into their work and life. They invented technology to simplify life. They focused on rebuilding American manufacturing. The man's ideal was a breadwinner, an ideal woman was a submissive housewife. The civil rights movement brought legislation not because of cultural pluralism, but because of the efficiency of equal opportunity, according to the authors. Overall, the chapter claims that G.I. Hero generation fought for the public good in all aspects of their midlife.

Young adults of the First Turning were the Silent Generation. This generation was risk-averse and put down for it by their elders. The Silent youth sought to emulate the G.I. successes but came up short. They wanted to work for big corporations, lacked creativity and ambition. The American High lacked the challenge for the youth to prove themselves. According to the authors, this resulted in frustration. They chose "helping” careers, bringing sensitivity into the rigid social order their elders had built.

Boomers were the children during the most recent First Turning. The main credo of their childhood was optimism. This value was key for G.I.'s parents to instill in their children. Boomer children enjoyed secure family life, bolstered public education, and entertaining TV. Social life was welcoming to Boomer children, offering more privileges than ever before. Thus, a Boomer's childhood was an era of high optimism, made possible by rich family life and harmonious social order.

The chapter concludes that the post-war era in America was distinctly modern and optimistic. This attitude was sustained for one phase of life. Towards the end of the High, the pressure of changing times affected the mood. Nomad's cautionary attitude dampened the Heroes' ambition. Heroes grew impatient with the growth of society not matching their ambitious plans. Young-adult Artists were unhappy with the existing social order. The child Prophets felt a spiritual void in the materialistic order. By the early 1960s, the tensions reached their peak.

Summary of Chapter 7

"The Second Turning,” describes the Second Turning during the Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984). The assassination of John Kennedy became a milestone for many. This event coupled with the changing generational dynamics led to what Strauss and Howe termed "The Awakening.”

The chapter begins with the description of the conflict within the national psyche. On one hand, the political establishment thrived in mutual respect, on the other, civil unrest and discontent were raging all over the country. Economists predicted an unprecedented era of financial prosperity. The political institutions operated under the assumption that they were solid and would not be moved or replaced. However, in 1964, the confidence in the status quo began to erode. The authors claim that this questioning began with the economic elite and trickled down to the middle class and the poor.

The disillusionment soured the future outlook. Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy were murdered, symbolizing a tragic climax to a violent streak of events. Technological advances were made at the expense of economic equality. The bloody reality of 1969 in Vietnam forced the political establishment to acknowledge the failures abroad and at home. According to Strauss and Howe, the Vietnam War was only one of the symptoms of the upheaval. The economic certainty waned. Watergate and recession resulted in the public's distrust of larger institutions. Culturally, Americans embraced individualism. The individual became the center of civilization. Thus, developing individual wellbeing will result in a more prosperous community. Overall, between 1964 and 1984, the American psyche shifted to value individuals above the communal goals.

The chapter then traces how the shift in attitude affected the existing generations. The G.I.s felt disappointed and angry. The Silent finally experienced challenges and adventures. Boomers created a lifetime agenda based on their positive experience in the Awakening.

The Second Turning is characterized by cultural upheaval and spiritual renewal, hence the title "Awakening.” The social order is at its peak, while people increasingly question it. The mood of the turning shifts from the optimism of the High to a deep dissatisfaction with conformism. Institutions are no longer taken for granted, and the public pursues a reformist agenda. Heroes enter elderhood, fulfilling their grandiose plans for social order. Midlife Artists work to improve society. Young-adult Prophets challenge the established institutions, bringing about the spiritual awakening. Child Nomads feel unprotected as their parents' attention is elsewhere. Overall, the nation faces a disappointment with the established order.

G.I. elders set out to prove that the JFK assassination did not dampen their collective spirit. They focused on improving education and healthcare. They saw the technological advances as their achievements. Simultaneously, the rebelliousness of younger people struck the G.I.s as selfish. They viewed Vietnam as "a small regional war" that should not have posed a problem, according to the authors. As a result of Watergate, the national government was weakened. The energy-related progress that the G.I.s fought for was devalued as the new generations touted more energy-efficient living. Overall, the authors claimed that G.I.s' effect on American life was positive, which allowed them to acquiesce the power gradually.

John Kennedy's assassination affected the Silent generation the most. This generation increased their demands from the power holders to do better. When entering midlife, they enjoyed economic prosperity and opportunity. However, they felt a spiritual void. The number of divorces skyrocketed. Sexual awakening reshaped the roles of men and women, liberating both sexually. The authors described the effects of bringing "gender-role partnership" to "shambles.” The other effect of the spiritual awakening was the creation of dissent groups, and legal battles the activists fought against the G.I.-led status quo.

Boomers embraced their rebellious side. The authors quote Michael Harrington in calling the generation "mystical militants" to show their desire to upturn institutions. The risks from dissenting were low. At the same time, the booming economy offered plenty of career opportunities. The source of a lot of the angst was the revolt against male G.I. authority. The main cause was the Vietnam War and the resulting Days of Rage. The Campus unrest was another venue through which the Boomers expressed their discontent. Overall, the authors describe Boomers as radical zealots who influenced social and political establishment through loud public dissent.

The children of these decades, the 13ers, were affected by the new anti-child attitude. The popular media portrayed children negatively and there was less content for children. The abortion rate skyrocketed, and families increasingly shied away from having more children. The authors also observe that 13ers were not worth the parental sacrifice, unlike Boomers. The writers describe the reversal of a child-parent role, where children behave more adult-like and are able to face reality. Parents, on the other hand, are described as equal to children. The writers describe this reversal as detrimental, as the parents lost control and authority. In general, the 13ers became independent, as they needed to face the realities of life without adult supervision.

The Second Turning concluded with a grim outlook. The generations could not fulfill the roles set out for them by their predecessors. The elder Heroes felt alienated by the society's new spiritualism. Artists planned to expand individual freedom and choice. The young-adult Prophets yearned to remake society. The child Nomads distrusted the rules and powerless adults. These realizations brought forth the need for the Third Turning.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 8

"The Third Turning,” describes the Culture Wars, starting in 1984 and ending around 2005. The main idea of the chapter is that the events in these decades had the characteristics of the Unraveling period. The period of Unraveling is defined by the slight initial increase in mood and confidence which sours with time. Individual and spiritual aspects of life grow in importance, while trust in public institutions erodes further. The authors described the cultural trends of the 1990s to follow these moods. They trace the lack of confidence in civic life, while focus on the self soared.

In this period, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets reach midlife, Nomads come of age, and children are the Heroes. As they age, each generation takes on a different role and attitude. Elder Artists speed up the pace of social change. Midlife Prophets advocate a value-driven ethic. Nomads become young adults, joining the social reform with pragmatism and independence. Heroes are raised by pessimistic adults, who offer more protection to their children.

The Silent generation of Artists takes a back seat to the social reform, enabling other generations to take the reins. The authors apply this theory to the Silent generation to account for the events from 1984 onwards. Some of the political achievements of the Silent generations are minor when seen as part of the big picture, according to the authors. The authors cite the mixed success of the Americans with Disabilities Act to claim that while it benefited some recipients, it had its problems. The main legacy of this generation was to make the institutions fairer but not a sweeping, radical change of status quo.

Ultimately, the authors conclude that the outcome of the Silent generation's actions was ineffectual and disconnected from the lives of those who followed. The writers predict that this disconnect will result in resentment from the younger generation. At the same time, the Silent generation will engage in philanthropy, bring families and conflicting ideologies together, and ultimately striving for societal balance.

Boomers entered their midlife in the mid-1980s. With that, they took on the task of reforming the social order. The authors credit Boomers with reintroducing spirituality into the American culture. Their value politics stem from their experience during the Awakening stage. The goal that the Boomers had in politics is a cultural shift. Partly, this occurred in the growth of evangelical and New Age religious believers. Commercial and corporate realities shifted to adjust for the cultural change. The image of women in the Boomer generation became independent, equaling men in their zeal for change. The men connected with their spirituality. The authors claim that race relations shifted to the need for strengthening families, fighting crime, and focusing on the new generation.

The young adults of the Third Turning were the 13ers or Generation X. The authors describe their self-deprecating attitude and self-facing irony. The generation had diverse cultures but lacked cohesion. The media portrayed Boomer-generated criticism of X. The X also dramatically differed from the Silent generation of their parents. Strauss and Howe cite high abortion rates, arrest rates, and violence to draw a contrast with the Silent generation's relatively peaceful youth. The 13ers faced disappointment in the availability of economic stability.

Individualism triumphed, with people preferring entrepreneurship over corporate jobs or the public sector. The X understanding of gender roles and race was informed by the anxiety about the future. The writers predict that the 13ers would take the gloomy outlook on the future into their middle ages. The workforce will prioritize efficiency and non-traditional jobs over career-building. They also predict higher voter turnout and innovative solutions to political problems.

The Millennial children personify the Unraveling's rethinking of moral and spiritual status quo. Their childhood saw a wave of protective rhetoric, with child issues at the crux of elections rhetoric in 1988 and 1992. The authors claimed that the child's world that was damaged in the previous era was not yet fixed, but the dismay was palpable. Informing the institutions that influence a child's life, Boomers put family values at the forefront. Stay-at-home families gained popularity, and technology was used to infuse parental controls into Millennial lives.

Boomers believed in shielding the growing generation from media sex, violence, and racy language. The authors claim that that results in the nurture of values, which brings civic participation. Educational reform focused on citizenship and instilling non-academic values. Strauss and Howe predict that Millennial experience will be key to the renewal of American values. Eventually, the Millennials will feel empowered to bring about the change they need in their communities.

The chapter concludes with the predictions for the transition into the next turning. Strauss and Howe predicted that the mood of the early Oh-Ohs was going to be jittery. Individualistic, antisocial behavior would derail national progress. Institutions would weaken, even though they would be increasingly interconnected. All existing generations would face changes, but all would feel the negative effects of uncertainty.The Artists would tamper with the values agenda. The midlife Prophets would lead society deeper on the path of spiritual change. The young-adult Nomads would yearn for stability. The child Heroes would sense the need for secular change. Ultimately the arrival of the Fourth Turning would be marked with a dramatic event.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 9

"Fourth Turnings in History,” provides more details on the characteristics of Fourth Turnings past. The authors compare the events throughout history to observe common patterns. The main idea of the chapter is that all Fourth Turnings are essentially Crises. As such, they follow a specific formula of events, consisting of a catalyst, regeneracy, climax, and a resolution.

The Crisis begins with a catalyst, which shifts the national mood. The society then reaches a regeneracy, which delivers new energy to civic life. The regenerative process reaches a climax when the old order dies and the new order is born. What follows is a resolution, where the new order is established, and issues of the transition process are settled. Thus, each catalyst is the result of the Third Turning's dissent and disappointment. The resolution of the crisis then sparks the new High, completing the cycle of seasons.

A catalyst can be one or several events. These events were predictable, but the society was not prepared for them. This lost opportunity exaggerates the sense of urgency that drives society to reach solutions. The issues that are born in Awakening and are rationalized in Unraveling need to be resolved during the Crisis. During the regeneracy stage, the old social order is ousted, and the vision for the new order is implemented. This is not a seamless process, but a trial-and-error path. The authors provide examples from American politics that were less than successful in addressing critical issues.

By contrast, good political choices are rewarded swiftly. Individual lives change, too. Family values and social virtues are rethought and replaced. Age and sex divisions are re-drawn, with more focus on elders and men to lead, according to the authors.

The climax of regeneracy is the point at which civic power is at its fullest potential. Wars are more likely and are more effective at this stage. The probability of a revolution also rises, where the enemy is defined in moral terms, not necessarily national boundaries. The course of civilization is altered at the apogee of the transformation efforts. The results are sealed during the Crisis resolution. The winners and losers of the process are established, rewarded, or punished. What becomes clear is the end of one era and a conception of another.

The authors describe the last great Crisis American History went through. The "Great Power Saeculum" started on October 29, 1929. The catalyst was the Black Tuesday which brought a rapid realization of the end of an old era. The market crash and its aftermath, according to the writers, was predictable but still caught contemporaries by surprise. The disillusioned people set out to build a new order, prioritizing national interests. The end of the Civil War was somewhat exceptional, as the mood was not inflammatory enough to produce a Hero archetype. Instead, the Third and Fourth Turnings were compressed into just one generation, with the resolution occurring only a few years after the catalyst of the Crisis.

The authors pose a hypothetical question: what could have gone differently if the timeline was not accelerated? Their answer: it would have been more disastrous. The Revolutionary Saeculum's crisis reached its regeneracy in 1776. At the time, the resolution seemed almost impossible, yet now it seems inevitable. The bloody crisis of the New World Saeculum culminated in 1689 in a political revolution in Europe. The Reformation Saeculum reached the climax with the defeat of Philip IPs' fleet. The inception of the Tudor dynasty in 1485 marked the climax of the Medieval Crisis.

The lesson from all the previous Crises that the authors draw is that they could be predicted and therefore the nation can prepare for them. The catalyst itself is foreseeable, but the climax is not. Therein lies the difficulty, as the climax can present itself in many different forms. However, the warning signs to its direction lie in the catalyst and thus can be analyzed.

The generational archetypes behave in predictable ways during the crisis. The Prophets fear the next crisis. They set the stage by providing secular goals for the next generation. The Nomads manage the crisis as pragmatic leaders. They are tough and resolute while protecting the interests of the young. The Heroes act as soldiers in the wars Nomads design. They challenge failures of previous regimes, approaching Crises with teamwork and camaraderie. The Artist youths are the suffocated children of Crisis, growing up in its aftermath. They are overprotected by their parents, receiving their sacrifice, while being sheltered from the full effects of the Crisis. Overall, Strauss and Howe describe the Fourth Turning as a glorious era of courage and strength.

SUMMARY OF CHAPTER 10

"A Fourth Turning" concludes the second section of the book by providing a prophecy of what to expect in the Fourth Turning. The Authors use the theory to provide a prediction for the events that the nation might expect, and the role each generation will play in it. Strauss and Howe predicted that America would enter the Fourth Turning around the year 2005. The key prediction is that the America of the Fourth Turning would strive to eliminate the burden of choice, freeing the people to act.

The authors outline five possible scenarios for how the Crisis might start. The first scenario is violent unrest caused by the tightening of fiscal policies. A terrorist attack is the second possibility. The third scenario is a government shutdown over the federal budget allocation. The fourth possibility is a new communicable virus. The fifth scenario is an escalation of tension with Russia. They note that the likelihood of any one of the scenarios is low. However, the basic elements of one of them would appear, and the effect could be exacerbated if another nation enters the Fourth Turning simultaneously. The catalyst will erode public trust in institutions. Financial markets would suffer consequences. Social Security, Treasury bills, and savings would become less reliable. Devaluation is possible. Coupled with dwindling career prospects, the outlook for the future would be bleak.

From the crumbling of the old order, the new order would emerge. The national election would signal the political realignment. The new regiment would be empowered to effect change, starting the regeneracy process. Pressures from other nations might force America into an isolationist policy. The militaristic attitude would result in less anxiety about casualties, according to the writers.

QUESTIONS

Summary of Chapter 11

"Preparations,” outlines how the generations can prepare for the upcoming Fourth Turning, and the general lessons for the future. Chapter 11, "Preparing for the Fourth Turning,” defines three key aspects of preparation: seasonal, postseasonal, and preseasonal activities.

The seasonal activities would react to the events of Unraveling. The key advice is to capitalize on the technological and economic growth. Simultaneously, America needs to avoid overconsumption, excess, and erosion of civic responsibility. Postseasonal behavior should be avoided. The main takeaway is that the habits of the old era must be avoided. The authors give evidence of political decisions which reiterate past failures. The outcomes could be disastrous and could span economic and social prosperity or even peace. Preseasonal behavior would entail anticipating the challenges of the upcoming Crisis. Electing effective public officials is one of the possible preseasonal behaviors.

To make positive preseasonal behavior possible, Americans need to reevaluate their opinions of the recent past. People need to accept the past and relinquish their judgments. Within the divided political landscape in America, the Democrat-Republican divide is prominent. However, the authors claim that the two ways of thinking both pose threats to preseasonal thinking. The key message they suggest is that of civic duty. They encourage Millennials to form a positive relationship with the government lending their efforts towards positive change.

Strauss and Howe provide several guidelines on how to prepare for the Fourth Turning on a national level. First, values are key. Reaching consensus might be difficult but is necessary. The second step is to prepare instructions. To forge a path forward, America needs to figure out what works. The third step is to prepare politics. The authors argue for the supremacy of duties over rights in times of crisis. Next, American society needs to be ready. Community and teamwork would work on a local scale, but not nationally. Youth needs to be prioritized but not coddled. Future elders need to be more self-sufficient.

Economic fundamentals need to be solid, but the temporary performance is less important. Mobilization is the next step. The authors encourage the military to expect the worst. The authors note that while some of these preparations may seem modest but carrying them out is essential in preparing the future generation for the Crisis.

1. Look at the author’s description of your generation. Do you think you exhibit all characteristics they describe? Discuss your results with a partner.

2. Pick a generation from Chapter 4. Try to find a historical description of an individual that conforms to the author’s image and one that does not. How can you explain the discrepancy?

3. The authors cite historic figures that represent their generations. Pick one figure and find evidence to support the author’s claims.

4. In Chapter 7, Annie Gottlieb is cited as calling the Boomers “a tribe with its roots in time, rather than place or race.” Do you agree?

5. In Chapter 10, the authors argue that all crises begin with a catalyst. Pick an important event from the last decade and trace its catalyst. Where would this event fit in the Four Turning theory?

6. In Chapter 7, the authors note that “America's new consciousness celebrated childhood as an ideal, but it neglected childhood as an actual living experience.” How do you interpret this quote?

7. Do you agree with the authors claim that in modern America “everyone, no matter how disadvantaged or recently arrived, can be fairly said to have a bona fide chance to share in the redefinition of social roles and hence to join in what makes the generational cycle turn.”? Why or why not?

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOURTH TURNING

Strauss and Howe first presented the ideas that formed the basis for this book in 1991 in a book Generations. In it, they traced American history as a continuation of the Anglo-American line starting in 1584. Generations was also the first time they put forward the idea of seasonality and recurrent Turnings. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy is an expansion of these ideas. The authors traced the Anglo-American history further back, systematized their findings, and renamed their generational archetypes.

The book received mixed reviews. The major criticism was that the theory attempted to predict the future, which reviewers considered deterministic. The lack of rigorous evidence firmly placed the book in the pseudoscience category, with fellow historians dismissing it completely. David Greenberg, a professor at Rutgers University, referred to the theory as a crackpot. Another criticism the book received is that it overlooked other societal factors that could influence attitude and behavior, for example, race or economic wealth.

Steve Bannon, who served as White House Strategist during the first few months of Trump’s presidency is a big fan of the book. In 2017 The New York Times and Business Insider both ran think pieces focusing on Bannon’s embrace of the Four Turnings theory. The publications used the book to contextualize Bannon’s plans for the Trump administration. He envisioned that he was instrumental in bringing about the Fourth Turning. The lens of the Fourth Turning offers an interesting look at Steve Bannon’s ideology and that of his followers.

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